Taking a step back and trying to understand Boris's reasoning for proroguing parliament.

Political Though (2019)

In a discussion piece advocating for Rory Stewart in the conservative leadership race, I stated that the country needed a leader that was not from the political extremes as with each day that goes by politics becomes even more controversial and decisive. Just a few years back, only a whisper of proroguing parliament would have been political suicide let alone a Prime Minister actually getting the Queen to agree to it. But, here we are, Boris Johnson is in charge and we can only look on in terror at what other extreme political cards he will attempt to trump this one with. As expected the mainstream media and politicians responded in justified horror with claims of ''dictatorship'' and other statements outlining how undemocratic this decision is. So, why would Johnson make such a decision that has upset a large part of his party and the country? Before continuing, it is important to state that his decision is not a normal or respectable one and should only be considered as negative no matter which side of the political debate you sit on. But, it is equally important to understand that someone in the position of Prime Minister is not an idiot and would have made this decision knowing the uproar it would cause and calculating the potential benefits it could get Johnson. This piece is speculation of course as no one will know except Mr. Johnson himself, though it may offer an attempt at understanding how a man could consider something so undemocratic as a good thing to do.

Mr Johnson has explained from day one his first aim is to renegotiate a deal with the European Union. Though Johnson is a known liar, for the sake of this speculation piece we will consider what he says in public to be his truth. In addition, he has stated recently that the reason the EU are not taking his threats of No Deal seriously is because they believe parliament has the power to stop it. The proroguing of parliament might be a peacock attempt at showing the EU that Johnson is serious in his threat of No Deal and will go to exceedingly undemocratic lengths to prevent parliament stopping it. From the eyes of Boris, this is just a way of flouting his power and forcing the EU to renegotiate a deal. The whole thing is a distraction tactic so that he can force changes to Theresa May's deal and come back to parliament with Boris's usual ''Oh did I say something wrong attitude?'' and they will all laugh as he fluffs his hair and no one can say he was undemocratic as he gave parliament a vote on his deal. In his head he would consider himself unscathed morally and he had produced results to his biggest aim. This would be on the pretence that Johnson could negotiate something quickly before the opposing parties had chance to get there act together.

If Johnson's dream scenario didn't come to fruition then there would be only two options left. The EU stick to their guns and don't renegotiate and the opposition runs out of time to block no deal: an option that I would rank as Johnson's least preferred option as though he would be doing what he said he would, so would gain respect from some members of the electorate, he would also cause enough economic damage to make the conservative party difficult to reelect. Proroguing Parliament means there is only one option left: the Opposition call a speedy no confidence vote and the country goes into a general election. Johnson's decision has forced the opposition's hand and this means this is their only option and likely the one that will happen in the coming weeks. It is likely that Johnson believes he will storm an election because he can go to the public saying he tried everything possible and if you want this Brexit mess over you have to vote Conservative; with Boris's bonny distraction tactics and man-of-the-people rhetoric (both problematic), he is likely to win over the countries silent majority. The only reason the country hasn't already gone to a general election is because Johnson can't be seen to have caused it as that would be problematic to the people he will usually gain most support from. In this scenario, Labour would take the hit in the eyes of the public for causing another general election and Labour are not strong enough as is to take a hit like that. Any Labour spokesperson saying that they could win a general election has not felt the mood of the country where Labour strongholds have become exasperated with the party. So, Johnson will likely storm a general election and get a mandate to renegotiate a deal with the EU.

All three scenarios described above give Johnson the political advantage as he will deliver Brexit in all three and come out looking positive to the silent majority of the electorate. In addition, he is aware of how quickly the general public will forget the drama of proroguing parliament as there will be so many more political dramas in the coming weeks that the electorate will forget by the time they next get a say. It is clear that Johnson has calculated that this is the best political chess piece to play as it adds pressure to the EU and the Opposition to act in his benefit without damaging Johnson's hand. Viewing these outcomes, it is obvious why Johnson made the decision he did and shouldn't come as a surprise, but that is why Johnson was the wrong leadership candidate; any other leader would see the awful moral consequences, the effect it has on the Monarchy by putting the Queen in such a difficult position and the effect it has on the Union with the SNP asking daily for Scotland to be more democratic - it is a leader like Johnson that only sees how it will effect him and disregards the rest.

People who disagree with Johnson acting so undemocratically and in such an extreme manner to bolster up his premiership should sign the petitions and go out and protest to show future Prime Ministers that this is not the behaviour that will get them elected. But, for this Prime Minister it has already been calculated to make little difference.